In a report released today, with intermediate perspectives, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) improves its advanced estimate by 1.5 percentage points in July, although it signals that world GDP will grow by 5% in 2021, two tenths less than than estimated two months ago.
This is the scenario on which the Paris-based body will work.
According to the OECD, if business and consumer confidence increase faster than expected, new outbreaks of coronavirus will only require light, localized containment measures.
If a treatment or vaccine is found earlier than expected, GDP could grow by up to 7% in 2021 and trade by up to 6%, he adds.
On the other hand, if the uncertainty is greater than estimated and the outbreaks intensify, GDP growth could fall by 2.5 or 3 points and global trade will fall by up to 7% next year.
In 2021, the global loss of revenue would increase to seven billion dollars (about 5.8 billion euros), a number that, if the situation improves, could be reduced to four billion and that if it worsens it could reach 11 billion.
“The world is facing its most dramatic slowdown since World War II. There is no way to ease it, ”said OECD chief economist Laurence Boone, in presenting the data, emphasizing that less consumption, production and investment inevitably lead to less work.
The OECD admits that its calculations are always subject to the evolution of the covid-19 and the containment measures adopted by the different governments.
For the G20 as a whole, the organism’s projection is for a 4.1% drop in GDP, improving June’s 5.7% in its most optimistic scenario, and the 2021 increase up to 5% by two tenths. , 7%.
Only China, according to the data, registers in both cases a growth of its GDP of 1.8% this year and of 8% next year, an upward revision of 4.4 points and 1.2 percentage points, driven by its rapid control of the virus and by being the first country affected.
In the remaining G20, the health crisis will represent falls in GDP, with the countries most affected being South Africa (11.5%), Argentina (11.2%), Italy (10.5%) and Mexico (10.2%) .
For the United Kingdom (-10.1%), France (-9.5%), Germany (-5.4%) and the euro zone (-7.9%), the OECD improves its projections by one point, or 3.5 points in the case of the USA (-3.8%), with these countries failing to escape the red zone of GDP behavior.
The covid-19 pandemic has already claimed at least 929,391 deaths and more than 29.3 million cases of infection in 196 countries and territories, according to a report by the French agency AFP.
The disease is transmitted by a new coronavirus detected in late December in Wuhan, a city in central China.
After Europe succeeded China as the center of the pandemic in February, the American continent is now the one with the most confirmed cases and the most deaths.
ICO // EA
OECD content improves forecasts for 2020, but predicts a slow economic recovery appears first in Vision.